Von der Leyen’s last push for more women

What’s driving the day in Brussels.
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
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GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. It’s Nick Vinocur with today’s Playbook. Suzanne Lynch will be bringing you Thursday’s edition.
VDL LEANS ON COUNTRIES TO FIND MORE WOMEN: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is conducting a last-ditch campaign to try to find suitable candidates to fill the top ranks of the EU executive and avoid ending up with a group of commissioners that looks like a 1950s corporate boardroom.
Picking on the runts: Her strategy, according to two diplomats who spoke to Playbook, is to entice member countries, especially smaller ones, to put forward alternate names by dangling juicier portfolios if they can come up with female candidates.
Try again, Malta: That’s the approach von der Leyen has reportedly taken with Malta. According to a story in the Times of Malta, the top EU executive is pressuring the government to replace its current male nominee, Glenn Micallef, with a suitable woman. Von der Leyen may also be turning the screws on at least two other smaller EU countries, said the EU diplomats. 
Double Dalli? One of the diplomats said Helena Dalli, Malta’s current commissioner in charge of equality, was “pushing to stay on” for a second term. But the diplomat said Malta’s prime minister, Robert Abela, was unlikely to change his mind on Micallef as doing so “would undermine his authority.”
Mystery nations: Von der Leyen’s renewed push for more female representation comes just a few days before the Aug. 30 deadline she has set for EU countries to propose commissioners. In addition to the three countries whose nominees she hopes to change, five capitals have yet to publicly submit a name for their Commission roles — and could potentially be prevailed upon to put up a woman.
Leverage: While the choice of who to send to Brussels lies entirely in member countries’ hands, von der Leyen can leverage the fact that the choice of their portfolio is entirely in hers. She can dangle more substantive jobs — security-related and economic roles are in especially high demand — or more seniority in the Commission’s pecking order. Hence an extremely complex set of negotiations is expected to drag on well after the Aug. 30 deadline.
Numbers game: The Commission president is also surely aware that getting a country to switch out a proposed man in favor of a woman is more valuable, numbers-wise, than getting new female proposals from countries such as Belgium and Bulgaria, which have yet to put forward any names (more on Belgium’s melodrama here). 
Thoughts and prayers: For EU countries watching the struggle from the sidelines, a sentiment often expressed is that they would also like a gender-balanced Commission … but how that happens is entirely von der Leyen’s problem, absent any language calling for parity in EU treaties.
Paradox: “As member states we expect VDL to strive for gender parity in her Commission. No one’s arguing against that. At the same time, member states believe that it is up to us to propose the commissioner we prefer,” said a third EU diplomat. “Unfortunately those two desires don’t seem to align this time around.”
Her problem: Now it’s up to von der Leyen to figure out how to solve this puzzle. She’ll need to strong-arm, persuade or buy off member countries to come up with more women. But at what cost?
Impossible is nothing: Theoretically, the goal of a gender-balanced Commission is still within reach. In practice, it looks like a long shot — and opens von der Leyen to criticism not just that she failed to achieve her goal, but that she invited capitals to defy her authority.
Power game: In the short term, a failure by von der Leyen to achieve gender parity would signal an “inability to impose her will on national capitals at the beginning of a new mandate,” said Alberto Alemanno, professor of EU Law at HEC business school in Paris. “In the medium term, it puts her College at (unnecessary) risk by having an unprecedented number of candidate commissioners being rejected” when they face hearings in the European Parliament.
Bottom line: Von der Leyen will be joined at the pinnacle of European politics by two other women: former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Malta’s Roberta Metsola, who are slated to be the EU’s high representative and president of the European Parliament, respectively. But that could be overshadowed if von der Leyen ends up presiding over a lopsidedly male Commission.
**What are the economic and financial priorities of the new Commission? Discover it all at POLITICO Competitive Europe Week on the afternoon of October 2. Apply for your Financial Services pass today!**
MIGRATION ROW DEEPENS: In Germany, a fierce debate about migration sparked by the fatal Solingen knife attack is compounding the political problems of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his fragile three-party coalition government. On Tuesday, opposition leader Friedrich Merz — potentially Germany’s next chancellor — added to the pressure on Scholz, suggesting a “national emergency” to restrict migration.  
“The chancellor is gradually losing control of his own country,” Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said after meeting Scholz, according to my colleagues on Berlin Playbook.
Germany first: At issue for Merz is Germany’s ability to deport migrants like the accused Solingen attacker, a rejected Syrian asylum seeker who entered the EU via Bulgaria. Merz’s party argues that the EU’s Dublin regulation, under which migrants are meant to stay in the country where they first arrive in the bloc, has “collapsed and effectively failed,” per a CDU paper.   
State of emergency: If Europe can’t effectively enforce the Dublin rules in the near term, Merz wants Germany to declare a “national emergency” so that it can use national law to turn away asylum seekers at its border, my colleagues in Berlin report. “If it cannot be adhered to, then I am convinced that we have the right to turn people back at Germany’s external borders,” Merz reportedly said.
Scholz reacts: Merz’s plan would open a Pandora’s Box that would have far-reaching consequences for the EU, my colleagues write. “We abide by European Union law,” Scholz told public broadcaster ZDF, adding that the right for individuals to claim asylum “remains intact.” But while the chancellor won’t allow blanket rejection of asylum seekers, he insisted his government is working “very intensively” to tighten migration rules and that he understands why many Germans are concerned. “I’m losing my temper, too,” Scholz said.
SCHOLZ HOSTS STARMER: U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived in Berlin last night, and he’ll meet Scholz at the chancellery later this morning. The visit is part of the new British leader’s push for closer relations with the EU, with Starmer seeking closer cooperation in areas including defense, science, tech, trade, clean energy and environmental protection — though he has repeatedly stressed he’s not seeking to reverse Brexit. 
Potential sticking points: Germany is keen on some kind of mobility scheme for young Europeans to live and work in Britain, but Starmer’s government has already ruled that out, my London Playbook colleague Dan Bloom writes in his column, in your inbox (and here) in an hour. The U.K. also has no plans to rejoin the EU’s Erasmus student exchange scheme, a government spokesperson told POLITICO’s Jon Stone, despite reports that Brussels was lining that up in separate talks about a closer relationship.
What Starmer can learn from Scholz: My colleagues Sam Blewett (who’s on the trip with Starmer), Nette Nöstlinger and Esther Webber have a great long read about the contrasting political positions of the two center-left leaders. While Starmer has just taken power with a commanding majority, Scholz’s SPD party’s dire polling means he may have only 13 months left as chancellor. One Downing Street official told my colleagues that Starmer’s team is wary of repeating Scholz’s errors in government and emboldening the far right.
NOW READ … about how Germany is gradually distancing itself from China, despite the objections of its powerful auto industry.
MEANWHILE, IN ITALY: Giorgia Meloni’s government has impounded a Médecins Sans Frontières rescue ship for the 23rd time, stepping up its crackdown on irregular migration, the FT reports.
EUROPE’S NEWEST 1-PARTY STATE? Late last year, the Commission handed Georgia coveted EU candidate status, paving the way for it to join the bloc. Nine months on, the country’s membership application is suspended and it’s now weighing up joining the likes of Russia, Belarus and North Korea in banning the parliamentary opposition, my colleague Gabriel Gavin reports.
Going East: Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze last week vowed to outlaw the entire parliamentary opposition if his ruling Georgian Dream party wins a nationwide election in October. Critics say it is more evidence that Georgia, which has received billions in economic support from the EU and U.S., has pivoted toward closer ties with Moscow since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Georgia on his mind: EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano told Gabriel that Brussels is “ready to react” if Kobakhidze’s government proceeds with the bombshell plan. “The current course of action jeopardizes Georgia’s EU path, de facto leading to a halt of the accession process,” Stano said. “All options are on the table and we would act accordingly if these statements are enacted.” Read the story here.
D-DAY FOR DUROV: Pavel Durov’s detention expires today, with the Telegram CEO due to learn whether he’ll face charges and/or be remanded in French custody, or be allowed to go free. While we wait, read this WSJ story on how various governments wooed and targeted Durov.
Eyes emoji: “At the lunch in 2018, which hasn’t been previously reported, Macron invited the Russian-born Durov to move Telegram to Paris, people familiar with the discussions said. Durov declined at the time.” (Readers will know of Macron’s personal affinity for the app, per our Paris colleagues.)
ZELENSKYY TO PRESENT PEACE PLAN: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday he will present a plan to end the war with Russia to U.S. President Joe Biden and the two candidates running to succeed him in the White House, Reuters reported. Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia was part of the plan to force Vladimir Putin to end the war, but Kyiv is also envisaging diplomatic and economic steps to achieve peace.
NATO meets to address airstrikes: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will convene a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council today at Kyiv’s request, with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov joining remotely, my colleague Stuart Lau writes in to report. The meeting, which will focus on the “battlefield situation and priority capability needs,” according to NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah, comes after a series of heavy strikes by Russia against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.
IRAN OLIVE BRANCH? Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opened the door to renewed negotiations with the U.S. over Tehran’s weapons program, telling the government there was “no harm” in engaging with its “enemy,” AP reports.
Meanwhile, White House backs Israel: U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby said the Biden administration remains committed to defending Israel if Iran attacks. “One, don’t do it. There’s no reason to escalate this,” Kirby said, summarizing the government’s message to Iran, reported by Reuters. “And number two, we are going to be prepared to defend Israel if it comes to that.”
Now read: Gabriel Gavin has this analysis of why energy is Israel’s weak spot.
TRUMP SAYS TV DEBATE IS GOING AHEAD: Donald Trump said he has agreed to debate his Democratic opponent for U.S. president Kamala Harris on Sept. 10. Our U.S. site has more.
New charges: A federal grand jury in Washington, D.C., reindicted Trump on four charges related to his effort to subvert the 2020 presidential election.
— Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
— France’s President Emmanuel Macron holds a working lunch with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier at 1 p.m.
— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola travels to Poland, where she will have a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Donald Tusk and attend the “Campus — the Future of Poland” conference.
— Executive Vice President Věra Jourová is in Poland to speak at the “Campus” conference … meets with Adam Bodnar, Poland’s minister of justice, and Adam Szłapka, minister for European affairs … meets with Barbara Nowacka, minister of education, and Rafał Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw.
WEATHER: High of 28C, sunny.
WHERE DID YOU SPEND YOUR AUGUST? Locals and activists in various cities across Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece are pushing back against mass tourism, which they claim has driven up housing prices, accelerated gentrification and made already-stretched water supplies more scarce. My colleague Ketrin Jochecová has the story.
MANDATORY TRAINING FOR PARLIAMENTARY AIDES: For the first time, Accredited Parliamentary Assistants in the European Parliament — the army of helpers who quietly make the work of MEPs possible — must complete mandatory online training that includes modules on harassment prevention, transparency and ethics in Parliament, according to an email seen by Playbook. In addition to those, APAs can take two optional in-person courses to learn how the EP works and how to practice emotional intelligence.
FILL YOUR SHELVES: Tim Ross, POLITICO Europe’s deputy head of news, has a new book out in November about the 2024 British general election, written with Rachel Wearmoth, publisher Biteback announced. “Landslide: The inside story of the 2024 elections” promises a scoopy, intimate account of “one of the strangest but most consequential elections in recent history,” according to the publisher’s press release.
GHOST HOTEL RISES FROM THE ASHES: The Hotel Astoria, which once hosted illustrious guests such as Winston Churchill, Salvador Dalí and Andy Warhol … and then became a crumbling relic, is reopening as the Corinthia Grand Hotel Astoria in November after an extensive renovation, the Brussels Times reported.
BIRTHDAYS: Former MEPs Ivan Vilibor Sinčić, Raffaele Fitto, Patricia Lalonde, Cécile Kyenge and Enrique Guerrero Salom; Thomas Huddleston of the Ethiopian Community Development Council.
THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
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